Precipitation

An overview of the different types of precipitation and how meteorologists track and forecast precipitation.

Snowfall

Types of Precipitation

What falls from a cloud almost always starts out as snow. What it turns into by the time it reaches the ground depends entirely on the temperature profile it falls through — specifically, how much of that path is above freezing versus below freezing.

Snow

Snow forms when the entire atmospheric column, from the cloud all the way to the surface, stays at or below freezing. Since the snowflake never encounters an air layer warm enough to melt it, it reaches the ground still frozen.

Sleet

Sleet occurs when a snowflake falls through a shallow layer of air above freezing, partially melting it, before falling back into a deep enough layer of sub-freezing air near the surface to refreeze it into a small ice pellet before it reaches the ground.

Freezing Rain

Freezing rain forms when a snowflake falls through a deeper warm layer, fully melting into a raindrop. It then passes through only a thin layer of sub-freezing air near the surface, which is too shallow to refreeze it before landing. Instead, it stays liquid until it strikes a surface that is at or below freezing, where it freezes on contact.

Rain

Rain falls when the warm layer extends essentially all the way to the surface. The snowflake melts aloft and never re-enters a sub-freezing layer, so it reaches the ground as plain liquid rain.

How Precipitation Type Is Determined

The diagram below shows a simplified version of the atmospheric temperature profile behind each precipitation type. Blue represents air below freezing, and red represents air above freezing. Click a button below to switch between types.

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Cold Air (below freezing)

No melting occurs — falls to the ground as snow.

Cold Air
Warm Air (above freezing)
Cold Air

Partially melts, then refreezes into ice pellets before reaching the ground.

Cold Air
Warm Air (above freezing)
Cold Air

Fully melts into rain, then freezes instantly on contact with the below-freezing surface.

Cold Air
Warm Air (above freezing)

Melts aloft and never refreezes — reaches the ground as plain rain.

Reading Radars

Radar maps show meteorologists where precipitation is currently falling, how intense it is, and where it's headed next. During winter storms, radar output is often paired with model precipitation-type guidance to distinguish not just where precipitation is falling, but what kind is expected in each location. On traditional radar maps, blue shades typically represent snow, pink or purple shades represent freezing rain and sleet, and green shades represent rain. Darker shades indicate heavier precipitation, with the heaviest rain (often associated with thunderstorms) appearing in yellow, orange, or red.

Radar forecast for a winter storm over the central United States
A radar forecast for a winter storm over the central U.S., from tropicaltidbits.com

Forecasting Precipitation

Meteorologists forecast precipitation by examining weather model guidance to determine where precipitation is likely to develop, when it will occur, and how much precipitation may fall. They compare different models and ensemble forecasts to identify areas of agreement and uncertainty. Meteorologists also examine the forecast precipitation type, particularly when rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain are possible. As the event gets closer, radar and satellite observations provide information about how precipitation is developing and moving, allowing meteorologists to adjust the forecast based on current conditions.